This weekend’s UAAP Final Four is going to be wild, with the current leaders Ateneo de Manila and Far Eastern University supposedly having the upper hand by far in their match-ups with University of Santo Tomas and University of the East, respectively. True, the twice-to-beat advantage could be the crucial determinant, but let’s break down the numbers to be more certain.

First, let’s look at the FEU-UE tussle. The sudden disappearance of point guard Mark Barroca, and Tamaraw team management’s unwillingness to comment as of this writing tells us that something is seriously wrong.

Reports vary from the national team guard being quarantined to having a vague injury. No doubt, FEU will miss his numbers (12.7 points, 5.1 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game), but the bigger question is how much his “disappearance” will affect the morale of the team.

Remember, the Tamaraws have grown together the past three seasons and have just overcome their whipping boys tag. Incidentally, they just lost to Ateneo by blowing an 18-point lead late in the game, missing a free throw that would have sent the game into overtime and also given them a chance to beat the Blue Eagles by the appropriate quotient. Nevertheless, the only other Tamaraw in the top 10 in scoring, Ryan Garcia (12.3 points, 2.8 rebounds, 2.6 assists per game) will be able to fill in nicely out of necessity.

The Red Warriors could use this dilemma as the perfect opportunity to pounce on the Tams. UE is riding a five-game winning streak, and has been extremely dangerous. Comparatively undersized, the third-running UE is ferocious off the boards, led by veterans Paul Lee (14.6 points, 5.8 rebounds and 4.9 assists) and Elmer Espiritu (13.6 points, 8.1 rebounds).

UE has four players in double figures, and three in the top 10 in scoring, a feat in itself. They are also comparatively deep to most of the teams in the UAAP. What gets them through many of their games is their emotional intensity. Rookie head coach Lawrence Chongson’s challenge is how to face this new situation, and come up with new tricks to befuddle FEU.

To beat UE, FEU will need big games from Reil Cervantes and Paul Sanga, who almost led them to an upset of Ateneo last weekend. Their inside-outside game will go a long way in neutralizing the athleticism of UE’s defense.

UE, for its part, will have to take the game inside and wreak havoc on the interior defense of FEU. The team that gets to run more will take Game 1. Emotionally, the Tamaraws will have to use the Barroca situation as fuel to get past a gritty UE. Remember, the core of both teams has been there before, watching Ateneo and La Salle consistently go at it.

Both teams feel it is their time. As Tamaraw head coach Glenn Capacio has known from repeatedly being on the PBA’s All-Defensive Team, shutting down your opponent wins you championships.

In the succeeding bout between Ateneo and UST, it appears the Blue Eagles have most of the advantages. Last year’s Most Valuable Player Rabeh Al-Hussaini (the only Blue Eagle in the top 10 with 16.5 points per game) has been a major problem in the post, aided by Nonoy Baclao’s (5.8 points, 8 rebounds) uncanny ability to plug the holes on defense.

Erik Salamat (11.9 points, 3.6 assists a game) has been a big help, either shooting from the outside or shredding defenses with critical drives to the basket.

This season, an additional strength has been their transition game. One question mark, though: When will the previous, superhuman incarnation of Ryan Buenafe show up? Norman Black has stressed defense and focus on his team, and the veterans have delivered.

At any rate, the champions’ depth and well-rounded defense have given all other teams fits. Save for stumbling against UP – in a game where the Maroons shot an unbelievable 86 percent in the fourth quarter – and Nico Salva’s ejection also last weekend, Ateneo has been poised, consistent and relentless.

The same cannot be said for the Growling Tigers. UST is carrying a three-game losing chain into the Final Four, and could have sealed their spot much earlier. Instead, they needed NU to eliminate De La Salle for them, and promptly lost to UE right after.

Despite the presence of newly-minted MVP Dylan Ababou (norming 18.9 points, 7.1 rebounds and 2.2 assists per contest), UST has been spotty on defense, allowing teams to get back into games.

The loss of assistant coach Beaujing Acot may be telling on the Tigers, since he was also instrumental in end-game strategies, and was a calming influence that complemented head coach Pido Jarencio’s fire.

UST will also need consistency from Khasim Mirza (13.5 points, 8.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists). Mirza will be the crucial match-up against the Blue Eagles. He has the rare combination of size and explosiveness that he has yet to fully assert. UST will need to shoot well from the outside to negate Ateneo’s size advantage.

In second spot, FEU only needs to win today to make it to the finals. It will be tough, and it will be physical. UE is scrappy, and willing to take contact. Important factors will be rebounding for the Red Warriors, and the running game and outside shooting for the Tamaraws. It will be a fast-paced game.

On top of the standings, Ateneo can barge into the championship round by winning tomorrow. Ateneo can control the paint, and bomb away when it needs to. For UST, leaning on its big two will not be enough. They need a third scorer to make it tough on the Blue Eagles’ defense. The big intangible is how much UST can get Ateneo’s big men into foul trouble, and run the ball up the other end of the floor. (Philstar)